IMD Monsoon Forecast 2026: Below-Normal Rainfall Likely in August-September, Agriculture May Face Challenges

Key Highlights

• August-September rainfall may stay below 94% of LPA.

• El Niño likely to continue through the monsoon season.

• Above-normal temperatures expected across most parts of India.

• Heavy rain likely in several states till August 6.

• Below-normal rainfall may impact Kharif farming and water resources.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has released an important monsoon update for August and September 2026, indicating that the second half of the southwest monsoon is likely to bring below-normal rainfall across the country. The forecast has raised concerns for the agriculture sector, especially farmers growing Kharif crops, as reduced rainfall could affect crop growth, water availability, and irrigation.

At the same time, the IMD has also predicted active rainfall in several states during the first week of August, along with warnings of heavy rain, thunderstorms, lightning, and strong winds in many regions.

IMD Predicts Below-Normal Rainfall in August-September

According to the IMD, rainfall across India during August and September 2026 is likely to remain below 94% of the Long Period Average (LPA).

The Long Period Average (LPA) for rainfall during August and September, calculated using data from 1971 to 2020, is 422.8 mm. The IMD expects rainfall during this period to remain below this average, although weather conditions will vary across different regions.

Despite the overall below-normal forecast, some parts of the country are still expected to receive normal or above-normal rainfall, including:

• Eastern Peninsular India

• Some parts of Northwest India

• Parts of Central India

• Some areas of Northeast India

Higher Temperatures Expected Across Most Parts of India

The IMD has also forecast that maximum temperatures are likely to remain above normal across most parts of the country during August.

However, temperatures may stay normal or below normal in:

• Some areas of Northwest India

• Parts of Central India

• Some regions of South India

Minimum temperatures are expected to remain normal to above normal across most parts of India during the month.

El Niño Conditions Continue to Influence the Monsoon

The IMD said that El Niño conditions over the Pacific Ocean are continuing and are likely to strengthen further.

Forecasts from the IMD's Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecast System (MMCFS) indicate that the influence of El Niño may continue for the remaining southwest monsoon season. El Niño is generally associated with weaker monsoon rainfall in India and can reduce overall seasonal precipitation.

Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) Remains Neutral

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently in a neutral phase and is expected to remain neutral during the rest of the monsoon season.

However, some international weather agencies have suggested that a positive IOD may develop during September 2026, which could influence rainfall patterns later in the season.

The IMD is expected to release a detailed forecast for September in the last week of August.

Active Rainfall Expected Between July 31 and August 6

Although the seasonal outlook points to below-normal rainfall, the IMD has forecast widespread rainfall activity across several states between July 31 and August 6.

Rainfall activity is expected to increase across many parts of Northwest and Central India during this period, accompanied by:

• Thunderstorms

• Lightning

• Strong winds of 30–40 kmph

• Wind gusts reaching up to 50 kmph

Rain is likely in:

• Himachal Pradesh

• Jammu and Kashmir

• Ladakh

• Uttarakhand

• Haryana

• Punjab

• Chandigarh

• Delhi

• Western Uttar Pradesh

• Eastern Uttar Pradesh

• Parts of Rajasthan

Heavy Rain Warning Issued for Several States

The IMD has also issued heavy rainfall warnings for multiple regions.

Heavy rain is likely in:

• Jammu and Kashmir

• Ladakh

• Himachal Pradesh

• Uttarakhand

• Haryana

• Punjab

• Chandigarh

• Delhi

Very heavy rainfall is possible at isolated places in Eastern Rajasthan.

In Central India, rain accompanied by thunderstorms and lightning is expected across:

• Western Madhya Pradesh

• Eastern Madhya Pradesh

• Chhattisgarh

• Vidarbha

The weather department has advised people to remain alert during severe weather conditions and follow safety guidelines issued by local authorities.

Possible Impact on Agriculture

The forecast of below-normal rainfall during the second half of the monsoon could create challenges for the agriculture sector. Reduced rainfall may affect Kharif crop growth, irrigation needs, soil moisture, and water storage in several regions. Farmers are advised to closely monitor local weather updates and plan agricultural activities accordingly, especially during critical crop growth stages.

Also Read: Bihar Farmers to Get Up to 80% Subsidy on 86 Farm Machines Under ₹236.58 Crore SMAM Scheme

CMV360 Says

The IMD's latest monsoon forecast indicates that August and September 2026 may receive below-normal rainfall, which could affect Kharif crops, water availability, and agricultural activities in several regions. However, active rainfall is expected in many states during the first week of August. Farmers should regularly monitor weather updates, follow IMD advisories, and plan irrigation and crop management carefully to reduce the impact of changing monsoon conditions.