India’s Petrol Exports Drop 33 Percent in March as Diesel Shipments Rise

Key Highlights

• India’s petrol exports fell 33 percent to 8.31 million barrels in March
• Diesel exports rose 20 percent month-on-month to 12.90 million barrels in March
• Overall refined product exports from India dropped 8 percent in March
• Domestic LPG production increased 40 percent since the US-Israel war against Iran
• Jet fuel exports declined 4 percent to 2.63 million barrels despite strong global demand

Diesel Exports Surge in March

India exported 12.90 million barrels of diesel between March 1 and 28, up from 10.74 million barrels in February. Data from ship tracking firm Kpler highlights this significant month-on-month rise. Nikhil Dubey, a senior research analyst at Kpler, stated that improved economics for middle distillate production supported higher diesel export volumes. He noted that geopolitical tensions in West Asia have tightened supplies of middle distillates, causing diesel and jet fuel crack spreads to strengthen more than those for petrol.

Refiners in India adjusted their product output to benefit from stronger crack spreads and higher margins. The crack spread refers to the difference between crude oil prices and the prices of refined products, while margin represents the profit refiners make based on costs and efficiency.

Petrol and Jet Fuel Export Trends

Despite the surge in diesel exports, petrol exports dropped sharply. India’s petrol exports fell 33 percent to 8.31 million barrels in March. Dubey explained that the decline in petrol exports is partly due to India prioritising liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) production. Refiners have redirected some hydrocarbon streams from petrol to LPG processing.

India has increased domestic LPG production by 40 percent since the start of the US-Israel war against Iran. This move aims to compensate for reduced LPG imports from the Gulf, which previously supplied about 54 percent of India’s total LPG consumption.

Jet fuel exports also declined, falling 4 percent to 2.63 million barrels in March. This decrease occurred even as global jet fuel crack spreads reached record levels.

Geopolitical Factors and Market Impact

The near closure of the Strait of Hormuz has driven up crude oil prices. However, the impact on refined fuels has varied. Diesel and jet fuel crack spreads have reached new peaks, while petrol crack spreads remain close to normal levels. Indian refiners continue to adjust their output in response to these changing market dynamics and geopolitical developments.