Global Food Prices Rise Again as Inflation Risks Grow for 2027

Key Highlights

• The global food price index rose 1.5% in September 2026.

• Wheat prices increased 6.3%, while maize prices climbed 5.6%.

• Rising fertiliser and diesel costs could increase farming expenses.

• El Niño could disrupt rainfall and reduce crop yields in 2027.

• Higher production and transport costs may push up consumer food prices.

Global food prices are rising again, raising concerns about higher food inflation in 2027. According to an S&P Global report, increasing fertiliser and diesel costs, along with the possibility of a strong El Niño weather event, could put pressure on agricultural production and food supplies worldwide.

If unfavourable weather affects major agricultural-producing regions, crop yields could decline, making essential food items more expensive. Wheat and maize prices have already increased in international markets, while higher costs of farming, fuel and transportation could add to the pressure on consumers. However, the extent of food inflation in 2027 will depend on weather conditions, agricultural output, international trade and the availability of essential farming inputs.

Global Food Price Index Rises in September 2026

Data from the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) shows that the global food price index increased by 1.5% to 136 points in September 2026. The index was also 5.8% higher than in September 2025, indicating growing pressure on international food markets.

The monthly increase was mainly driven by higher prices of cereals, vegetable oils and sugar. However, prices did not rise across every food category. While several essential commodities became more expensive, meat prices declined and dairy prices remained largely stable.

These differences show that global food inflation is being influenced by individual commodity supply and demand conditions, alongside broader economic and weather-related risks.

Wheat and Maize Prices Increase in Global Markets

Cereal prices were among the major contributors to the September increase. The FAO cereal price index rose by 5.1% compared with August 2026. Within this category, international wheat prices increased by 6.3%, while maize prices climbed by 5.6%.

Wheat prices came under pressure because of dry weather before sowing in some parts of North America. Transportation constraints in the Black Sea region also affected market conditions, creating additional uncertainty around supplies and deliveries.

The maize market faced pressure from several factors, including expectations of lower yields in the United States, limited export availability from Brazil and disruptions along trade routes. Changes in global demand and supply could also affect industries that depend on maize, particularly food processing and animal feed production. If grain supplies tighten further, higher commodity prices could increase costs for food manufacturers, livestock farmers and other businesses across the agricultural supply chain.

Sugar and Vegetable Oil Prices Also Rise

The increase in global food prices extended beyond cereals. According to the FAO, its vegetable oil price index rose by 0.9% month-on-month in September, while the sugar price index increased by 6.1%. Weather-related concerns in Southeast Asia and strong import demand supported palm oil prices. These developments added to the pressure on international vegetable oil markets.

In contrast, the FAO meat price index declined by 1.1% during September, while the dairy price index remained broadly stable. This suggests that the rise in food prices is not uniform, with different commodities responding to their own production, trade and demand conditions.

Rising Fertiliser and Diesel Costs Could Affect Crop Production

Higher farming costs are another major concern for 2027. Fertilisers and diesel are essential inputs for agricultural production, machinery operations and the transportation of crops. When these costs increase, farmers face higher expenses throughout the growing and harvesting seasons.

If input prices remain elevated or diesel availability becomes limited, some farmers may reduce fertiliser application or cultivate smaller areas of land to control costs. Such decisions could affect crop yields and overall production in the coming months.

Lower production, combined with expensive transportation and other supply-chain costs, could eventually push up food prices in domestic and international markets. The impact will depend on how long these cost pressures continue and how farmers, suppliers and governments respond to changing market conditions.

El Niño Adds to Global Agricultural Risks

S&P Global has also highlighted the possibility of a potentially strong El Niño as a risk to agricultural production in 2027. El Niño is a climate phenomenon linked to changes in sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. It can influence normal weather patterns, including rainfall and temperatures, across different parts of the world.

Depending on the region, its effects can include drought, unusually high temperatures, excessive rainfall and flooding. Such conditions can damage crops, disrupt planting schedules and reduce agricultural yields. If adverse weather affects major farming regions in 2027, production of wheat, maize and other crops could come under pressure. The situation could be particularly difficult for farmers already facing higher fertiliser and fuel costs.

However, El Niño does not affect every country or crop in the same way. Its actual impact will depend on the timing and intensity of the weather changes and the agricultural conditions in individual regions.

What Rising Food Prices Mean for Consumers

Higher global food prices can affect consumers through several stages of the supply chain. Increased costs for fertilisers, fuel, farm machinery operations and transportation can raise the expense of producing and delivering food.

If agricultural output falls at the same time that production and logistics costs rise, households could face higher prices for essential food items. Food-importing countries may be particularly exposed when they also depend on international markets for fertilisers and fuel.

For businesses, sustained increases in cereal, sugar and vegetable oil prices could raise manufacturing and processing costs. Higher maize prices may also affect animal feed expenses, potentially adding further pressure to food production costs.

Although it is too early to determine how much global food prices will rise in 2027, the latest trends highlight the importance of weather conditions, agricultural input costs and international trade in shaping the outlook.

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CMV360 Says

Global food prices are showing renewed signs of pressure as rising cereal, sugar and vegetable oil prices coincide with higher farming costs and potential weather disruptions. A strong El Niño could create additional challenges for agricultural production in 2027, although its impact will vary across regions and crops. For consumers, the key concern is whether these pressures translate into sustained food inflation. Weather, crop yields, fuel costs and international trade will remain critical factors in determining future prices.