Commercial vehicle sales are expected to be solid, but considerably below their pre-Covid peak.

A surge in infrastructure and development, combined with increased economic activity, has fueled truck sales across the board, with the exception of light commercial vehicles.

Demand for trucks and buses remains high and is likely to rise ahead after the adoption of stricter pollution standards next month, although overall sales of such vehicles this fiscal year are expected to fall short of the 2018-19 record, according to industry estimates.

A surge in infrastructure and development, combined with increased economic activity, has fueled truck sales across the board, with the exception of light commercial vehicles, which have witnessed some weakening in demand. Experts say that improved fleet utilization and higher replacement demand from the scrappage policy, which is set to go into effect on April 1, 2023, have been driving up volumes.

In addition to the fiscal year-end phenomenon, which generally leads to greater purchases in March as transporters buy to take advantage of the depreciation benefit, they predict that pre-buying ahead of the change in emission standards will boost truck sales.

According to Vinod Aggarwal, president of the industry group Association of Indian Automobile Manufacturers, most categories are anticipated to conclude 2022–23 lower than they did in FY19, except for a few sub-segments of the bus and truck markets.

He expects 463,000 trucks and buses to be dispatched in the local and foreign markets this fiscal year, compared to 557,000 units in FY19. According to Shruti Saboo, assistant director, corporates at India Ratings Research, commercial vehicle (CV) volume sales will likely reach pre-Covid levels only by the end of FY24.

This is on top of a 10% price increase implemented by CV makers in the last year. As the segment's consumers are more price sensitive, she believes this could lead to some pre-purchasing. According to analysts, Tata Motors has seen a pre-buy tendency in truck sales ahead to the implementation of the new emission standards.