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IMD declares El Nino in India, raising concerns over weak monsoon, lower rainfall, crop damage, rising food prices, and challenges for farmers during the 2026 Kharif season
By Robin Kumar Attri
IMD officially declared the onset of El Nino on June 13, 2026.
Monsoon rainfall forecast lowered to around 90% of the Long Period Average.
Probability of a deficient monsoon estimated at nearly 60%.
Pulses, oilseeds, maize, sorghum, and millet may face higher risks from low rainfall.
Farmers advised to adopt drought-resistant crops and follow weather advisories.
India's agriculture sector is facing fresh concerns after the India Meteorological Department (IMD) officially declared the onset of El Nino on June 13, 2026. According to the weather department, the climate phenomenon is expected to strengthen during the upcoming monsoon season, increasing the risk of below-normal rainfall across the country.
Since a large portion of Indian farming depends on monsoon rains, a weak monsoon could affect crop production, farmers incomes, and food prices in the coming months.
In its June bulletin, the IMD said that sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific Ocean have crossed the threshold required for El Nino conditions. As a result, the monsoon rainfall forecast for 2026 has been reduced to around 90% of the Long Period Average (LPA).
The department has also estimated nearly a 60% probability of a deficient monsoon this year. This has raised concerns among farmers, policymakers, and agricultural experts, as rainfall plays a crucial role in India's agricultural economy.
El Nino is a natural climate event that occurs when the waters of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean become warmer than normal.
Under normal weather conditions, trade winds push warm ocean water toward Asia, helping carry moisture that supports the Indian monsoon. During El Nino, these winds weaken and the warm water shifts eastward across the Pacific Ocean.
This change reduces the flow of moisture toward India and weakens monsoon activity. Meteorologists describe this process as atmospheric subsidence, where sinking air suppresses cloud formation and reduces rainfall.
India's Kharif crop season is highly dependent on monsoon rainfall. Lower rainfall can reduce soil moisture, affect sowing activities, and lower crop yields.
Agricultural experts warn that weak monsoon conditions may lead to lower production and higher food prices.
Rice production may remain relatively stable in regions with good irrigation facilities. However, overall production could still decline if rainfall remains below normal in major growing areas.
Pulses and oilseeds are among the most vulnerable crops because they depend heavily on rain-fed farming. Any prolonged rainfall deficit could significantly impact their output.
These crops may also experience lower yields due to insufficient soil moisture and reduced rainfall during critical growth stages.
Farmers may have to rely more on tube wells and groundwater sources to irrigate their fields. This could increase cultivation expenses and put additional pressure on water resources.
Reduced rainfall caused by El Nino could create drought-like conditions in several agricultural regions. This may lower farm incomes and increase financial stress on farmers.
In some areas, farmers may even need to re-sow crops if initial sowing is affected by poor rainfall.
The impact may extend beyond crop farming. Animal husbandry activities could face challenges due to reduced fodder availability, while rural employment opportunities may also come under pressure.
Experts point out that not every El Nino year results in a major drought in India. Over the years, improvements in irrigation infrastructure, crop insurance coverage, and government support programs have strengthened the agricultural sector's ability to cope with weather-related risks.
The government has indicated that sufficient seed stocks are available for re-sowing if rainfall remains deficient. Authorities are also encouraging farmers to adopt drought-resistant crops and millets, which require less water and can better withstand dry conditions.
Additionally, favorable ocean conditions such as a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) could help reduce some of the negative effects of El Nino on the Indian monsoon.
With El Nino officially active, weather experts are closely monitoring its impact on the 2026 monsoon season. Farmers are being advised to follow weather forecasts regularly, adjust cropping plans according to rainfall conditions, and adopt risk-management practices to minimize potential losses.
If monsoon rainfall remains weak, the effects may not be limited to agriculture alone. Food inflation, rural livelihoods, and the broader economy could also face challenges in the months ahead.
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The official arrival of El Nino in 2026 has increased concerns over a weaker-than-normal monsoon in India. With the IMD forecasting rainfall at around 90% of the long period average and a higher chance of a deficient monsoon, the agricultural sector remains on alert. While improved irrigation, crop insurance, and government preparedness offer some protection, farmers are being encouraged to stay vigilant, adopt climate-resilient farming practices, and prepare for possible rainfall shortages during the Kharif season.
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