IMD Predicts Below-Normal Monsoon and Fertiliser Shortages for 2026–27 Crops

Key Highlights

• IMD forecasts 92 percent of average monsoon rainfall for June to September 2026
• Fertiliser supply faces disruptions due to global trade issues and export restrictions by major suppliers
• India remains highly dependent on fertiliser imports for key plant nutrients
• Policy reforms suggested include shifting to direct per-acre payments for farmers
• El Niño expected to impact both kharif and rabi crop yields

Monsoon and El Niño Impact

IMD expects the El Niño phenomenon to strengthen towards the end of the four-month monsoon season. This could negatively affect the 2026–27 rabi crop and the kharif crop to be planted soon. While improved irrigation has helped Indian agriculture manage subnormal rainfall, water shortages still pose risks.

El Niño events often disrupt weather patterns, leading to lower rainfall and higher temperatures. This can reduce soil moisture and increase stress on crops, making efficient water management essential for farmers.

Fertiliser Supply Crisis

India is currently facing an unusual supply shock in fertilisers. Unlike previous crises driven mainly by high prices, the current situation involves both price and availability issues. Global disruptions, such as the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, have impacted about one-third of the world’s seaborne fertiliser trade.

Key raw materials and intermediates like natural gas, ammonia, and sulfur are also affected. Major exporters, including Russia and China, have restricted fertiliser exports to prioritize domestic needs. Russia accounts for one-fifth of global fertiliser trade, while China was India’s largest supplier of urea and DAP until 2023–24.

India remains heavily dependent on imports for plant nutrients, as it lacks significant reserves of gas, rock phosphate, potash, or mineable sulphur. This reliance increases vulnerability to global supply disruptions and price volatility.

Policy Reforms and Future Outlook

The combination of weak monsoon forecasts and fertiliser shortages highlights the urgency for policy reforms. Experts suggest shifting from product-based subsidies to a flat per-acre payout of Rs 5,000 for all cultivating farmers. This approach could merge funds from the fertiliser subsidy and PM-Kisan schemes, providing direct income support to farmers.

Such reforms aim to improve supply stability and reduce market distortions. By focusing on availability and exploring alternative nutrition sources, India can better support its farmers during periods of uncertainty.

The 2026–27 agricultural year may become a turning point for Indian farming. Addressing these challenges through targeted reforms could enhance resilience and promote long-term growth in the sector.